20/06/2022 – Exchange Rates

  • Posted by Shyam Gokani in Rate Alerts
  • June 20, 2022
  • No Comments

The pound edged higher this morning, breaking a three-week losing streak versus the broadly struggling U.S. dollar as hawkish comments from policymakers supported the currency.

While the Bank of England raised interest rates by just a quarter point last week – lagging more robust action from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks, markets are putting a 80% chance on a half-point rise in July and expect almost 100 basis points of tightening by September.

The BoE’s new message that it may have to act “forcefully” on interest rates is not unconditional and depends on the persistence of inflation pressures.

A number of factors point to pound weakness at the moment but supported Bank of England rate expectations have provided a floor for now, and the pound is stabilising at the centre of the 1.20-1.25 area.

Against the U.S. dollar, the pound is up 0.1% at $1.2236 after three consecutive weeks of losses. It fell to a March 2020 low of $1.1934 last week.

Net short pound positions fell for a third consecutive week, according to latest positioning data as some traders have cut back on their bearish pound bets.

GBP/EUR 1.1650 GBP/USD 1.2263 GBP/AED 4.4982
GBP/AUD 1.7543 GBP/CHF 1.1821 GBP/CAD 1.5924
GBP/NZD 1.9282 EUR/USD 1.0514 GBP/ZAR 19.547

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