Dollar in Focus as Fed Balances Growth and Inflation
Last week was anything but quiet, with renewed tensions between the U.S. and China, the ECB signalling stability on interest rates, and even an unusual public clash between President Trump […]
BoC Pauses Cuts, US Data Misses, and ECB Eyes First Rate Reduction
The Bank of Canada look likely to becoming towards the end of their rate cutting cycle after they opted to keep current interest rates on hold, keeping in tune with […]
Geopolitical Tensions and Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD Ahead of Key Eurozone and US Data
The Australian dollar faced notable pressure following the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which revealed a shift in forward guidance. Concerns surrounding ongoing US–China tariff discussions added […]
Markets in Motion: June’s First Week Brings Key Economic Shifts
And just like that, we’ve already reached June! It might be something I say every year, but 2025 truly feels like it’s flying by; largely thanks to the constant volatility […]
Dollar Gains Amid Reduced Trade Volatility and Cautious Fed Outlook
The Dollar has recovered further against both Sterling and Euro after a Federal Court ruled against Trump’s liberation day tariffs. The recovery was aided by bets on fewer trade related […]
Dollar Strengthens as U.S. Confidence Surges and Tariff Talks Ease Global Tensions
The Dollar regained some ground yesterday against both Sterling & Euro on 2 fronts. Firstly, Trump’s effective U-turn on the 50% tariffs for Europe set to begin on June 1st but […]
EU Tariffs, Economic Data, and Fed Minutes in Focus
It was a busy and eventful long weekend for markets, dominated again by President Trump’s trade policies. On Friday, Trump announced a bold move; imposing a 50% tariff on all […]
UK Inflation Sparks Mixed Market Response as Sterling Wavers
Since the UK’s inflation release yesterday, The Pound has had mixed reactions against both EUR & USD. Usually stronger than expected inflation would see the currency strengthen as it incentivises […]
Sterling Gains Ground Amid UK-EU Talks
Sterling enjoyed improved performance over the last week, particularly against the Euro, driven largely by speculation surrounding ongoing UK-EU negotiations. Markets appear optimistic ahead of key talks scheduled for Monday, with traders hoping for positive outcomes. However, it’s important to remain cautious; while optimism is running high, there’s a risk the outcome might fall short of market expectations. If talks disappoint, we could see Sterling give up some of its recent gains. Conversely, a positive surprise could push GBP/EUR rates firmly into the 1.19 area. Looking at economic data, Monday starts with Eurozone core inflation, expected to rise by 0.3% to reach 2.7% year-on-year. Given persistently high costs across Europe, a higher inflation print won’t come as a shock. However, it could influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) approach, possibly slowing down their planned interest rate cuts—potentially giving the Euro some short-term support. Later in the day, various Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak. However, without Fed Chair Jerome Powell participating, these speeches are unlikely to offer substantial forward guidance or spark significant market volatility. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to cut interest rates to 3.85%. Even though this cut is anticipated, it’s likely to put downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. Traders should therefore expect GBPAUD to open higher when London markets begin trading. Additionally, Canadian inflation data later in the day is forecasted lower at 1.6%, likely causing weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and potentially creating trading opportunities in CAD pairs. Wednesday’s primary focus will be on UK inflation data, forecasted to rise to 3.6% year-on-year. A higher inflation reading would likely prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to pause any further immediate rate cuts, providing Sterling with some short-term strength. With no other significant data scheduled, Sterling pairs may see greater volatility based purely on this inflation release. Thursday is Flash PMI day, providing preliminary economic snapshots from the UK, Eurozone, and the U.S. Both the UK and Eurozone figures are expected to show slight improvement, while U.S. PMIs are forecasted lower across the board. Although these flash PMIs are essentially estimates, they’re generally accurate and can serve as important leading indicators for market sentiment. We may see some volatility, particularly in USD pairs, if U.S. PMIs confirm a weakening economic outlook. Finally, Friday concludes with UK retail sales data. Currently, no official forecast has been released, but given recent good weather conditions, it would not be surprising to see increased consumer spending across the UK. Strong retail figures could further bolster Sterling, closing the week on a positive note. As always, navigating currency markets in such volatile times requires careful planning. If you need any support or insights on managing your FX risk, please feel free to reach out—I’m here to help. GBP/EUR 1.1858 GBP/USD 1.3367 GBP/AED 4.9114GBP/AUD 2.0761 GBP/CHF 1.1137 GBP/CAD 1.8650GBP/NZD 2.2648 EUR/USD 1.1257 GBP/ZAR 24.0937
UK GDP Beats Forecasts, Shifting Market Focus to Key US Data
UK economic data released this morning showed that GDP grew by 0.7% in Q1—marking a sharp rebound from the previous quarter’s 0.1% increase and exceeding expectations of a 0.6% rise. […]