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Market Update

• Posted by currencies in Brexit, coronavirus, Sterling, UK, Uncategorised
• July 2, 2020
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Against a basket of currencies, the greenback slipped marginally and is tracking toward its worst week in a month, with a 0.4% fall – though it could shift significantly in either direction depending on U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT.

Non-farm payrolls figures are expected to show an increase of 3 million jobs last month. But estimates vary widely, and the data comes as concerns grow about whether the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery as coronavirus infections surge and some states reimpose limits on business and personal activity.

Sterling will gain towards the end of the year if Britain and the European Union (EU) thrash out a deal over future trade relations as most analysts expect.

The pound against the USD is currently back up to the 1.25 level, it will then shift up a gear to $1.27 by end-December when Britain’s transition period after leaving the EU is due to expire. The pound will be around 4% stronger than current levels at $1.29 in a year, according to recent polls.

“Our central scenario is that some kind of Brexit deal or delay will be agreed. With this in mind, we think sterling will rise, however, given recent developments, said Simona Gambarini at Capital Economics.

The dollar’s dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook but a second shock from the coronavirus would push it higher.

Over 10.5 million people have been infected by the coronavirus globally and there are fears that as countries ease restrictions, there will be a resurgence of cases, as has been seen in some U.S. states.

Against the euro the pound will not see much action for a year. One euro will be worth the 91 pence it was on Wednesday in six months. In a year it will fetch 88 pence, the poll found.